Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 53¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$58.33

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares13,937

Combined PnL+$269.77

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,859

Combined PnL-$211.44

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Overavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$250.08	53% 86-76 (162)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$137.82	57% 3183-2408 (5591)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$19.68	54% 519-438 (957)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$69.7	12% 65-459 (524)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$141.41	$142.15	+$0.74	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100.93	$95.95	-$4.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$40.48	$46.2	+$5.72
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$88.5	$84.08	-$4.42	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$68.32	$69.05	+$0.73	52% 422-389 (811)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$49.67	$38.25	+$1.08	49% 629-666 (1295)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$20.2	$19.19	-$1.01	37% 325-557 (882)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$12.38	$12.09	-$0.29	54% 512-439 (951)

AppleTiiime

Over

Invested

$4,999.92

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$250.08

Record

53%

86-76 (162)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,863.83

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$137.82

Record

57%

3183-2408 (5591)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$2,047.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$19.68

Record

54%

519-438 (957)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,394

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$69.7

Record

12%

65-459 (524)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$141.41

Value

$142.15

PnL

+$0.74

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Under$100.9350¢-$4.98

Over$40.4846¢+$5.72

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.5

Value

$84.08

PnL

-$4.42

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$68.32

Value

$69.05

PnL

+$0.73

Record

52%

422-389 (811)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.67

Value

$38.25

PnL

+$1.08

Record

49%

629-666 (1295)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.2

Value

$19.19

PnL

-$1.01

Record

37%

325-557 (882)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.38

Value

$12.09

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

512-439 (951)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.