Pistons vs. Wizards

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (62%) · Pistons at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Pistons80¢Wizards20¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$7.05

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 79.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons80%

Wizards21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,661

Combined PnL+$14.85

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$300.27

Total Shares1,465

Combined PnL-$21.9

Pistons — 62%Wizards — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Pistonsavg 81¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$25.66	48% 12-13 (25)
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 78.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$14.22	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
PU purplegatto	Pistonsavg 78¢	$361.14	$365.77	+$4.63	69% 2589-1187 (3776)
TY Tys0n8686	Pistonsavg 76¢	$340.83	$354.28	+$13.45	— 2-2 (4)
FL Flaznorp	Pistonsavg 78¢	$264.15	$269.23	+$5.08	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Wizardsavg 22¢	$181.64	$169.25	-$12.38	47% 350-393 (743)
nigiri99	Pistonsavg 78¢	$126.36	$127.98	+$1.62	52% 235-217 (452)
38 38791873984189CTR	Wizardsavg 22.2¢	$123.47	$113.92	-$9.55	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Pistonsavg 77.8¢	$168.09	$78.26	-$1.05	23% 38-129 (167)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 77.8¢	$51.33	$52.47	-$23.52
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 22.2¢	$27.97	$25.79	+$22.47
SU suntori<$100	Pistonsavg 77¢	$57.14	$58.62	+$1.48	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 20.6¢	$11.43	$11.36	-$0.07	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 19.3¢	$4.54	$4.71	+$0.17	55% 729-596 (1325)
HY hydra1248<$100	Pistonsavg 78¢	$2.18	$2.21	+$0.03	78% 108-30 (138)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.03	-$0.08	38% 99-159 (258)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Pistons

Invested

$1,385.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$25.66

Record

48%

12-13 (25)

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$1,147.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$14.22

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

purplegatto

Pistons

Invested

$361.14

Value

$365.77

PnL

+$4.63

Record

69%

2589-1187 (3776)

Tys0n8686

Pistons

Invested

$340.83

Value

$354.28

PnL

+$13.45

Record

—

2-2 (4)

Flaznorp

Pistons

Invested

$264.15

Value

$269.23

PnL

+$5.08

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

SnakeBallCTR

Wizards

Invested

$181.64

Value

$169.25

PnL

-$12.38

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

nigiri99

Pistons

Invested

$126.36

Value

$127.98

PnL

+$1.62

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

38791873984189CTR

Wizards

Invested

$123.47

Value

$113.92

PnL

-$9.55

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

OddstormARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$168.09

Value

$78.26

PnL

-$1.05

Record

23%

38-129 (167)

Both legs:

Pistons$51.3377.8¢-$23.52

Wizards$27.9722.2¢+$22.47

suntori<$100

Pistons

Invested

$57.14

Value

$58.62

PnL

+$1.48

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$11.43

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

hydra1248<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.03

Record

78%

108-30 (138)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Pistons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPistons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.