Spread: Suns (-4.5)

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (18%) · Suns at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Suns99¢Clippers1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 18%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$793.15

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 98.6¢

+17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns99%

Clippers1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,478

Combined PnL+$45.74

Clippers9 traders

Total Value$73.83

Total Shares4,340

Combined PnL-$838.89

Suns — 18%Clippers — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Suns) and the top 1000 (10 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 91.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$155.71	56% 504-395 (899)
VeryLucky888	Sunsavg 47¢	$246.74	$410.47	+$201.45	51% 330-319 (649)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Clippersavg 7.5¢	$148.98	$28.99	-$119.99	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 52.9¢	$430.45	$15.46	-$414.99	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clippersavg 23.8¢	$132.31	$11.13	-$121.18	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Clippersavg 15.5¢	$90.12	$10.72	-$75.72	48% 969-1052 (2021)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Clippersavg 31¢	$64.48	$3.02	-$61.46	30% 134-317 (451)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clippersavg 22.4¢	$30.06	$2.68	-$27.38	49% 450-474 (924)
RN1CTR<$100	Clippersavg 11.9¢	$6.08	$1.02	-$5.06	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Clippersavg 15.2¢	$3.31	$0.44	-$2.88	35% 266-490 (756)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Clippersavg 53¢	$10.6	$0.38	-$10.22	57% 3075-2312 (5387)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$2,214.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$155.71

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

VeryLucky888

Suns

Invested

$246.74

Value

$410.47

PnL

+$201.45

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

FlaznorpCTR

Clippers

Invested

$148.98

Value

$28.99

PnL

-$119.99

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$430.45

Value

$15.46

PnL

-$414.99

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

6512395314597884CTR

Clippers

Invested

$132.31

Value

$11.13

PnL

-$121.18

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$90.12

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$75.72

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$64.48

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$61.46

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$30.06

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$27.38

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

RN1CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$6.08

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$5.06

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

sentrioCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.31

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$2.88

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$10.6

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$10.22

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Suns) and the top 1000 (10 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.