Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 228.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 75¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$102.88

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 75¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,863

Combined PnL+$261.6

Over6 traders

Total Value$860.31

Total Shares2,389

Combined PnL-$158.72

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 68.3¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$153.17	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 38.3¢	$463.13	$498.73	+$35.6	56% 504-395 (899)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$458.33	$492.42	+$34.09	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.6¢	$239.82	$303.97	+$64.15
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.1¢	$218.51	$188.45	-$30.06
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 63.8¢	$517.56	$468.53	-$49.03	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.8¢	$267.88	$314.98	+$47.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.7¢	$249.68	$153.55	-$96.13
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 49¢	$99	$151.5	+$52.5	54% 217-188 (405)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 39.2¢	$168.47	$137.67	-$30.8	48% 969-1052 (2021)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 57.3¢	$283.49	$123.79	-$159.7	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 43.9¢	$70.54	$120.39	+$49.85	28% 299-766 (1065)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 50¢	$52.27	$78.41	+$26.13	29% 307-750 (1057)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 35.2¢	$104.47	$63.42	-$7.23	49% 450-474 (924)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 80¢	$72	$48.6	-$23.4	64% 180-100 (280)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$25.43	$28.42	+$2.99	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 44¢	$14.71	$18.06	+$3.34	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 40.8¢	$13.94	$8.27	+$0.41	54% 401-336 (737)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,551.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$153.17

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$463.13

Value

$498.73

PnL

+$35.6

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$458.33

Value

$492.42

PnL

+$34.09

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Under$239.8253.6¢+$64.15

Over$218.5137.1¢-$30.06

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$517.56

Value

$468.53

PnL

-$49.03

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Under$267.8863.8¢+$47.1

Over$249.6840.7¢-$96.13

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$99

Value

$151.5

PnL

+$52.5

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$168.47

Value

$137.67

PnL

-$30.8

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$283.49

Value

$123.79

PnL

-$159.7

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$70.54

Value

$120.39

PnL

+$49.85

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$52.27

Value

$78.41

PnL

+$26.13

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$104.47

Value

$63.42

PnL

-$7.23

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$72

Value

$48.6

PnL

-$23.4

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.43

Value

$28.42

PnL

+$2.99

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$14.71

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$3.34

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.94

Value

$8.27

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.