Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 50¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 10

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$46.7

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,955

Combined PnL+$25.68

Over7 traders

Total Value$865.91

Total Shares1,690

Combined PnL+$21.02

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$23.27	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.8¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$40.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$17.29
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$19.44	43% 28-37 (65)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$535.5	$526.75	-$8.75	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$353.5	$353.5	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$182	$173.25	-$8.75
73 739633786	Overavg 49¢	$371	$382.36	+$11.36	0% 0-75 (75)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$294.36	$286.86	-$7.5	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$159.68	$161.25	+$1.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$134.68	$125.62	-$9.07
0xheavy888	Overavg 53¢	$265	$272.5	+$7.5	69% 29-13 (42)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 48¢	$115.2	$116.4	+$1.2	52% 242-224 (466)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43¢	$105.72	$109.57	+$6.02	49% 60-63 (123)
RN1<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$48.5	+$0.5	54% 233-201 (434)
TX txwd9991<$100	Overavg 49¢	$43.45	$43.9	+$0.44	0% 0-47 (47)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$21.14	$21.36	+$0.22	0% 0-42 (42)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 49¢	$1.33	$1.34	+$0.01	3% 4-156 (160)
AU auros2<$100	Overavg 47¢	$0.9	$0.91	+$0.01	—

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,971.71

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$23.27

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Under$2,900.4248.8¢+$40.56

Over$1,021.0151.3¢-$17.29

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$1,302.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$19.44

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$535.5

Value

$526.75

PnL

-$8.75

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Invested

$371

Value

$382.36

PnL

+$11.36

Record

0-75 (75)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$294.36

Value

$286.86

PnL

-$7.5

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Under$159.6851¢+$1.57

Over$134.6852¢-$9.07

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$265

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$115.2

Value

$116.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$105.72

Value

$109.57

PnL

+$6.02

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

txwd9991<$100

Over

Invested

$43.45

Value

$43.9

PnL

+$0.44

Record

0-47 (47)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.14

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$0.22

Record

0-42 (42)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.01

Record

4-156 (160)

auros2<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.