Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 48¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$101.84

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares8,870

Combined PnL+$39.36

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,785

Combined PnL+$62.48

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.1¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$39.32	54% 20343-17178 (37521)
nehcnehc	Underavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$53.05	61% 4534-2843 (7377)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14	57% 22830-16911 (39741)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$714	$721	+$7
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$672	$679	+$7
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.44	57% 22682-16912 (39594)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$672	$679	+$7
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$657.09	$663.53	+$6.44
nigiri99	Underavg 52.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$20.59	45% 14911-18249 (33160)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 50¢	$999.98	$1.0K	+$30.02	49% 31-32 (63)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$242.5	$242.5	+$0	53% 72174-63643 (135817)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$77.14	$77.92	+$0.78	51% 28897-28239 (57136)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$41.48	$41.89	+$0.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$35.65	$36.03	+$0.37
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47.9¢	$44.69	$35.93	+$0.05	53% 28460-25726 (54186)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$10.96	$11.02	+$0.06	57% 25623-19105 (44728)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 47.3¢	$8.22	$8.4	+$0.18	48% 72298-78071 (150369)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$16.76	$8.13	-$0.25	45% 2751-3326 (6077)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,327.86

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$39.32

Record

54%

20343-17178 (37521)

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$1,803.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$53.05

Record

61%

4534-2843 (7377)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,386

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14

Record

57%

22830-16911 (39741)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,329.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.44

Record

57%

22682-16912 (39594)

Both legs:

Over$67248¢+$7

Under$657.0951¢+$6.44

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,178.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$20.59

Record

45%

14911-18249 (33160)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$999.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$30.02

Record

49%

31-32 (63)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$242.5

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

72174-63643 (135817)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$77.14

Value

$77.92

PnL

+$0.78

Record

51%

28897-28239 (57136)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.69

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

28460-25726 (54186)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.96

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

25623-19105 (44728)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

72298-78071 (150369)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.76

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$0.25

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.