Known as nehcnehc since Nov 3 2026 · Previously known as: ComingBack (Oct 22 – Nov 3 2026)
Consensus PnL -$719K · win rate 61% (4134–2659, n=6793) · PM monthly #709 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-718.9K
Record
4134W / 2659L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 6793 settled
Batting Avg
34.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#732
Source
PM monthly #709
Record (90 d)
889/1625 · 55%
Trades
36,461
Markets
9,407
Volume
$31.8M
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 10 on the consensus side (80%)- Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes $8.9K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (83% of 35)
- Spread: Suns (-1.5)Suns $4.7K · now 50¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (23% of 15)
- Magic vs. Suns: O/U 222.5Over $4.6K · now 51¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (44% of 19)
- Heat vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Under $4.2K · now 46¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.9K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (71% of 142)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.4K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (60% of 82)
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Heat $3.3K · now 63¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Warriors)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $2.2K · now 99¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (85% of 68)
Specialties
9,048 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 63¢- College Basketball
+5 pts
side won 77% of 140 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +7%
- MMA
+3 pts
side won 72% of 99 · avg entry 69¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+5 pts
side won 91% of 23 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 79% of 125 at an average 87¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 18% of 93)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 44% of 2311)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 55% of 3625)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 87% of 3019)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.