Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 42¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$301.43

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 41.5¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,541

Combined PnL+$163.3

Over10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,436

Combined PnL+$138.13

Under — 17%Over — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 56¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$163.3	48% 101-110 (211)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 44¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$56.52	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 43¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$48.52	14% 75-471 (546)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$304.5	$315	+$10.5	20% 97-381 (478)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 43.1¢	$285.85	$298.13	+$12.28	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.1¢	$222.25	$232.13	+$9.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$63.6	$66	+$2.4
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 43.7¢	$232.69	$239.85	+$7.16	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 43¢	$200.04	$209.34	+$9.3	45% 262-316 (578)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$254.8	$112.5	+$1.87	52% 445-417 (862)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$91.08	$93.15	+$2.07	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$31.75	$33.75	+$2	48% 659-706 (1365)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$10.72	$10.97	+$0.24	54% 563-474 (1037)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816<$100	Underavg 55¢	$5.19	$5.19	+$0	3% 7-200 (207)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$4.55	$4.5	-$0.05	32% 282-611 (893)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$3,657.81

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$163.3

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,317.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$56.52

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$1,043.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$48.52

Record

14%

75-471 (546)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$304.5

Value

$315

PnL

+$10.5

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$285.85

Value

$298.13

PnL

+$12.28

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

Both legs:

Over$222.2543.1¢+$9.88

Under$63.653¢+$2.4

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$232.69

Value

$239.85

PnL

+$7.16

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$200.04

Value

$209.34

PnL

+$9.3

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$254.8

Value

$112.5

PnL

+$1.87

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.08

Value

$93.15

PnL

+$2.07

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.75

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.72

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$0.24

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816<$100

Under

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$0

Record

7-200 (207)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.