Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Heat (79%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Heat vs. Kings

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (67%) · Kings at 22¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Heat79¢Kings21¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 67%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$23.94

Smart Money Entry

23.2¢ → 21.5¢

-7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 79%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Heat79%

Kings22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares13,142

Combined PnL+$2.58

Heat4 traders

Total Value$409.02

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$26.51

Kings — 67%Heat — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kingsavg 23.4¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$65.88	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Kingsavg 23¢	$377.12	$483.63	+$106.52	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kingsavg 23¢	$690	$407.12	-$39.47	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SE sentrioCTR	Kingsavg 23¢	$195.64	$191.38	-$4.25	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
GA Gaditima	Heatavg 78.9¢	$197.33	$176.25	-$21.08	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
38 38791873984189	Heatavg 76.2¢	$131.72	$133.91	+$2.18	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PCTR	Kingsavg 23¢	$115	$112.5	-$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Kingsavg 23¢	$115	$112.5	-$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Heatavg 76¢	$99.05	$91.88	-$7.17	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Kingsavg 23¢	$18.26	$23.42	+$5.16	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kingsavg 22.9¢	$27.3	$22.49	+$5.51	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0xheavy888<$100	Heatavg 75¢	$7.43	$6.98	-$0.45	56% 8260-6557 (14817)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kings

Invested

$2,132.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$65.88

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

FlaznorpCTR

Kings

Invested

$377.12

Value

$483.63

PnL

+$106.52

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kings

Invested

$690

Value

$407.12

PnL

-$39.47

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

sentrioCTR

Kings

Invested

$195.64

Value

$191.38

PnL

-$4.25

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Gaditima

Heat

Invested

$197.33

Value

$176.25

PnL

-$21.08

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

38791873984189

Heat

Invested

$131.72

Value

$133.91

PnL

+$2.18

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PCTR

Kings

Invested

$115

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Kings

Invested

$115

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

darkumbreon88<$100

Heat

Invested

$99.05

Value

$91.88

PnL

-$7.17

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

hi774cCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$18.26

Value

$23.42

PnL

+$5.16

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$27.3

Value

$22.49

PnL

+$5.51

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0xheavy888<$100

Heat

Invested

$7.43

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.45

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Heat 79%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.