Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Jazz (56%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-10.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (80%) · Heat at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Heat44¢Jazz56¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$5.26

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 43.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat44%

Jazz56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat8 traders

Total Value$786.6

Total Shares1,748

Combined PnL+$10.76

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$94.5

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$5.5

Heat — 80%Jazz — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 53.3¢	$718.88	$728.52	+$9.63	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 53.3¢	$431	$436.91	+$5.91
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 44.4¢	$287.89	$291.61	+$3.72
nigiri99CTR	Heatavg 42.5¢	$507.95	$537.75	+$29.8	52% 128-119 (247)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 58¢	$137.86	$131.58	-$6.28	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 58¢	$102.66	$95.58	-$7.08
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 44¢	$35.2	$36	+$0.8
FL FlaznorpCTR	Heatavg 42.7¢	$100.32	$105.71	+$5.39	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
RL RLWG<$100	Jazzavg 57¢	$85.5	$81	-$4.5	68% 1593-744 (2337)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Heatavg 47.8¢	$41.88	$39.45	-$2.43	47% 149-168 (317)
VeryLucky888CTR	Heatavg 47.4¢	$465.53	$33.89	-$21.83	50% 262-258 (520)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Heatavg 44¢	$32.19	$32.92	+$0.73	32% 184-398 (582)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Heatavg 47.3¢	$21.27	$20.23	-$1.05	56% 119-94 (213)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Heatavg 45¢	$14.4	$14.4	+$0	60% 3442-2338 (5780)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 58¢	$14.5	$13.5	-$1	49% 440-464 (904)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Heatavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.25	+$0.15	26% 177-517 (694)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$718.88

Value

$728.52

PnL

+$9.63

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Jazz$43153.3¢+$5.91

Heat$287.8944.4¢+$3.72

nigiri99CTR

Heat

Invested

$507.95

Value

$537.75

PnL

+$29.8

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$137.86

Value

$131.58

PnL

-$6.28

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Invested

$100.32

Value

$105.71

PnL

+$5.39

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

RLWG<$100

Jazz

Invested

$85.5

Value

$81

PnL

-$4.5

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$41.88

Value

$39.45

PnL

-$2.43

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

VeryLucky888CTR

Heat

Invested

$465.53

Value

$33.89

PnL

-$21.83

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

sentrioCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$32.19

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$0.73

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$21.27

Value

$20.23

PnL

-$1.05

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

NM-PCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

3442-2338 (5780)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$14.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

26%

177-517 (694)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Heat 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.