Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Jazz (55%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Heat (-16.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (30%) · Heat at 46¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Heat46¢Jazz54¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$78.53

Smart Money Entry

37.5¢ → 45.5¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat46%

Jazz55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat3 traders

Total Value$292.53

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$44.82

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$354.82

Total Shares571

Combined PnL+$33.7

Heat — 30%Jazz — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Heatavg 34.4¢	$152.27	$208.09	+$55.82	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jazzavg 77¢	$248	$200	-$48	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 77¢	$154	$107	-$47
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 47¢	$94	$93	-$1
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Heatavg 52¢	$169.07	$159.47	-$9.6	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 52¢	$110.83	$100.11	-$10.72
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 52¢	$58.24	$59.36	+$1.12
VE Venusian	Jazzavg 47¢	$96.14	$116.6	+$20.46	28% 304-772 (1076)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Jazzavg 67¢	$67	$77	+$10	54% 217-188 (405)
LI Limousin<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$66.77	$72.9	+$6.13	29% 313-784 (1097)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Heatavg 52.8¢	$62.44	$61.44	-$1	56% 502-393 (895)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 70.6¢	$54.33	$31.42	-$4.98	49% 446-472 (918)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Jazzavg 52¢	$28.99	$29.55	+$0.56	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Jazzavg 73¢	$24.82	$26.18	+$1.36	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Heatavg 33¢	$33	$23	-$10	53% 5552-4936 (10488)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$1	$1.18	+$0.18	6% 27-415 (442)

RN1CTR

Heat

Invested

$152.27

Value

$208.09

PnL

+$55.82

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$248

Value

$200

PnL

-$48

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Jazz$15477¢-$47

Heat$9447¢-$1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$169.07

Value

$159.47

PnL

-$9.6

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Heat$110.8352¢-$10.72

Jazz$58.2452¢+$1.12

Venusian

Jazz

Invested

$96.14

Value

$116.6

PnL

+$20.46

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Jazz

Invested

$67

Value

$77

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Limousin<$100

Jazz

Invested

$66.77

Value

$72.9

PnL

+$6.13

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$62.44

Value

$61.44

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$54.33

Value

$31.42

PnL

-$4.98

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Jazz

Invested

$28.99

Value

$29.55

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Flaznorp<$100

Jazz

Invested

$24.82

Value

$26.18

PnL

+$1.36

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$33

Value

$23

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5552-4936 (10488)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Jazz

Invested

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

27-415 (442)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.