Spread: Knicks (-15.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (64%) · Bucks at 51¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 11

Knicks50¢Bucks50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

-$10.41

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks50%

Bucks51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares9,200

Combined PnL-$2.78

Bucks7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,674

Combined PnL-$7.63

Knicks — 36%Bucks — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Knicks) and the top 1000 (9 on Bucks) disagree here.

ctrKnicks 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HG hgawxCTR	Knicksavg 50¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$3.6	2% 1-43 (44)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bucksavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$23.9	54% 1612-1363 (2975)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$21.28	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
LI Limousin	Bucksavg 50¢	$483.57	$478.73	-$4.84	24% 204-649 (853)
NM NM-P	Bucksavg 50¢	$180	$178.2	-$1.8	60% 3440-2335 (5775)
GC GC-P	Bucksavg 50¢	$175	$173.25	-$1.75	16% 65-346 (411)
73 739633786CTR	Knicksavg 49¢	$148.49	$150.01	+$1.52	3% 5-185 (190)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$113.53	$102.5	+$1.69	47% 781-864 (1645)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 47¢	$50.29	$53.5	+$3.21
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 51¢	$51	$49	-$1.52
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$80.99	$84.36	+$3.37	47% 147-167 (314)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Knicksavg 51¢	$17.82	$17.12	-$0.7	48% 410-447 (857)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Knicksavg 50¢	$10	$10	+$0	56% 105-81 (186)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bucksavg 50¢	$0.5	$0.51	+$0.01	23% 149-494 (643)

hgawxCTR

Knicks

Invested

$4,511

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$3.6

Record

1-43 (44)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bucks

Invested

$2,390.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$23.9

Record

54%

1612-1363 (2975)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$2,021.95

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$21.28

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Limousin

Bucks

Invested

$483.57

Value

$478.73

PnL

-$4.84

Record

24%

204-649 (853)

NM-P

Bucks

Invested

$180

Value

$178.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

60%

3440-2335 (5775)

GC-P

Bucks

Invested

$175

Value

$173.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

16%

65-346 (411)

739633786CTR

Knicks

Invested

$148.49

Value

$150.01

PnL

+$1.52

Record

5-185 (190)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$113.53

Value

$102.5

PnL

+$1.69

Record

47%

781-864 (1645)

Both legs:

Invested

$80.99

Value

$84.36

PnL

+$3.37

Record

47%

147-167 (314)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$17.82

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$0.7

Record

48%

410-447 (857)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

105-81 (186)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bucks

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

23%

149-494 (643)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Knicks) and the top 1000 (9 on Bucks) disagree here.

ctrKnicks 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.