Spread: Trail Blazers (-20.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (64%) · Thunder at 85¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers15¢Thunder85¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$878.73

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 85.1¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers15%

Thunder85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares5,971

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$879.67

Total Shares1,876

Combined PnL+$138.95

Thunder — 64%Trail Blazers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (5 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 90.4¢	$4.2K	$3.2K	$-1.1K	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 76.6¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$785.79	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 13.5¢	$585.06	$1.7K	+$1.1K
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 76.6¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$318.37
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 84.5¢	$983.9	$923.89	-$60	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 25.8¢	$392.62	$517.11	+$124.49	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Trail Blazersavg 32.6¢	$544.29	$314.19	+$12.64	53% 234-204 (438)
CI cigarettes	Thunderavg 49.7¢	$244.48	$281.14	+$98.72	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 72¢	$273.31	$273.25	+$23.73	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
JU justaluckydude	Thunderavg 68¢	$142.27	$142.58	+$0.31	34% 175-334 (509)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 35.7¢	$92.51	$48.32	+$1.92	48% 512-544 (1056)
LR lryyy<$100	Thunderavg 53¢	$2.65	$3.41	+$0.76	48% 203-219 (422)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Thunderavg 53¢	$1	$1.15	+$0.15	7% 32-416 (448)
RN1CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 2.9¢	$0.15	$0.05	-$0.09	57% 3877-2879 (6756)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$4,247.23

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2,070.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$785.79

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$585.0613.5¢+$1.1K

Thunder$1,409.2676.6¢-$318.37

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$983.9

Value

$923.89

PnL

-$60

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$392.62

Value

$517.11

PnL

+$124.49

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$544.29

Value

$314.19

PnL

+$12.64

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

cigarettes

Thunder

Invested

$244.48

Value

$281.14

PnL

+$98.72

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$273.31

Value

$273.25

PnL

+$23.73

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

justaluckydude

Thunder

Invested

$142.27

Value

$142.58

PnL

+$0.31

Record

34%

175-334 (509)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$92.51

Value

$48.32

PnL

+$1.92

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

lryyy<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.65

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$0.76

Record

48%

203-219 (422)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

32-416 (448)

RN1CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (5 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.7%

85.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.