Spread: Trail Blazers (-22.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (36%) · Thunder at 77¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers23¢Thunder77¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$75.49

Smart Money Entry

82.9¢ → 77¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers23%

Thunder77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,297

Combined PnL-$55.28

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$468.03

Total Shares1,938

Combined PnL+$130.76

Thunder — 36%Trail Blazers — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Thunderavg 74.5¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$605.51	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 92¢	$2.5K	$1.8K	-$633.54	56% 563-451 (1014)
65 6512395314597884	Thunderavg 86.5¢	$373.89	$355.31	-$18.58	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 18¢	$149.22	$236.27	+$87.05	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Thunderavg 97.6¢	$201.95	$165.01	+$23.3	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 8.9¢	$26.35	$84.22	+$57.87
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 97.6¢	$110.23	$80.79	-$34.57
JU justaluckydude	Thunderavg 80.9¢	$147.96	$139.29	-$8.67	34% 175-334 (509)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 17.9¢	$56.3	$84.62	+$28.31	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
RN1CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 18.8¢	$59.12	$73.87	+$14.75	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 22¢	$46.86	$49.95	+$3.09	53% 234-204 (438)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 9.9¢	$59.43	$13.51	-$3.37	48% 512-544 (1056)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 6¢	$5.28	$9.02	+$3.74	48% 203-219 (422)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 4.5¢	$3.6	$0.8	-$2.8	62% 2398-1492 (3890)

Flaznorp

Thunder

Invested

$2,110.21

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$605.51

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$2,457.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$633.54

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

6512395314597884

Thunder

Invested

$373.89

Value

$355.31

PnL

-$18.58

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$149.22

Value

$236.27

PnL

+$87.05

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$201.95

Value

$165.01

PnL

+$23.3

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$26.358.9¢+$57.87

Thunder$110.2397.6¢-$34.57

justaluckydude

Thunder

Invested

$147.96

Value

$139.29

PnL

-$8.67

Record

34%

175-334 (509)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$56.3

Value

$84.62

PnL

+$28.31

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

RN1CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$59.12

Value

$73.87

PnL

+$14.75

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$46.86

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$3.09

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$59.43

Value

$13.51

PnL

-$3.37

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

lryyyCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5.28

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$3.74

Record

48%

203-219 (422)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$2.8

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (7 on Thunder) disagree here.

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.