Spread: Magic (-6.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (50%) · Kings at 51¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 11

Magic50¢Kings50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 50%

Total Value

$29.4K

Combined PnL

$38.43

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic50%

Kings51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic6 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares27,727

Combined PnL+$142.85

Kings6 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares30,828

Combined PnL-$104.42

Magic — 50%Kings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMagic 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 50% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Magicavg 49¢	$13.3K	$13.4K	+$135.55	54% 514-436 (950)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Kingsavg 52¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$110.33	62% 1003-623 (1626)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kingsavg 51¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$52.38	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
nehcnehc	Kingsavg 51¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$46.34	19% 13-57 (70)
TA takeormakeCTR	Magicavg 48¢	$124.8	$127.4	+$2.6	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Magicavg 47¢	$60.85	$63.44	+$2.59	70% 1655-702 (2357)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Magicavg 48¢	$56.64	$57.82	+$1.18	25% 213-654 (867)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Magicavg 48¢	$47.3	$48.29	+$0.99	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
nigiri99<$100	Kingsavg 52¢	$16.64	$16.32	-$0.32	52% 125-115 (240)
NM NM-P<$100	Kingsavg 50¢	$6.54	$6.74	+$0.2	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Magicavg 49¢	$5.51	$5.46	-$0.06	48% 421-450 (871)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kingsavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.55	+$0	24% 157-504 (661)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Magic

Invested

$13,283.62

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$135.55

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

PacersThreeandahalf

Kings

Invested

$5,737.18

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$110.33

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kings

Invested

$5,342.75

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$52.38

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

nehcnehc

Kings

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$46.34

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

takeormakeCTR

Magic

Invested

$124.8

Value

$127.4

PnL

+$2.6

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$60.85

Value

$63.44

PnL

+$2.59

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

LimousinCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$56.64

Value

$57.82

PnL

+$1.18

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$47.3

Value

$48.29

PnL

+$0.99

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

nigiri99<$100

Kings

Invested

$16.64

Value

$16.32

PnL

-$0.32

Record

52%

125-115 (240)

NM-P<$100

Kings

Invested

$6.54

Value

$6.74

PnL

+$0.2

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$5.51

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMagic 50% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 50% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.