Spread: Magic (-8.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (71%) · Kings at 61¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 11

Magic39¢Kings61¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$473.07

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 61¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic39%

Kings61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,507

Combined PnL-$376.82

Magic2 traders

Total Value$799.45

Total Shares2,043

Combined PnL-$96.25

Kings — 71%Magic — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Kingsavg 62.4¢	$5.5K	$4.4K	-$386.95	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Magicavg 39.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$68.93	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 55.1¢	$595.32	$642.84	+$47.52
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 39.1¢	$614.33	$635.74	+$21.41
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Kingsavg 62.6¢	$1.2K	$976.66	-$241.14	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 62.6¢	$1.0K	$773.65	-$245.49
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 51.4¢	$198.66	$203.01	+$4.35
RN1CTR	Magicavg 43.8¢	$828.96	$747.12	-$81.84	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kingsavg 55.8¢	$721.84	$712.98	+$33.71	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 55.8¢	$404.37	$387.53	-$16.84
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 38.9¢	$272	$325.45	+$50.55
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 59¢	$346.76	$323.79	-$22.98	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 39¢	$103.68	$175.47	+$71.78
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 59¢	$243.08	$148.32	-$94.76
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kingsavg 47.7¢	$169.49	$190.07	+$20.58	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
PA Pan9X	Kingsavg 58.8¢	$111.78	$54.58	+$9.79	49% 450-474 (924)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Magicavg 44¢	$66.74	$52.33	-$14.41	28% 299-766 (1065)
TA takeormake<$100	Kingsavg 68.8¢	$30.95	$25.42	-$5.53	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Kingsavg 59¢	$37.76	$23.04	-$14.72	49% 220-229 (449)

Flaznorp

Kings

Invested

$5,477.04

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$386.95

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$1,209.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$68.93

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Kings$595.3255.1¢+$47.52

Magic$614.3339.1¢+$21.41

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,217.79

Value

$976.66

PnL

-$241.14

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Kings$1,019.1462.6¢-$245.49

Magic$198.6651.4¢+$4.35

RN1CTR

Magic

Invested

$828.96

Value

$747.12

PnL

-$81.84

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$721.84

Value

$712.98

PnL

+$33.71

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Kings$404.3755.8¢-$16.84

Magic$27238.9¢+$50.55

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$346.76

Value

$323.79

PnL

-$22.98

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Both legs:

Magic$103.6839¢+$71.78

Kings$243.0859¢-$94.76

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kings

Invested

$169.49

Value

$190.07

PnL

+$20.58

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

Pan9X

Kings

Invested

$111.78

Value

$54.58

PnL

+$9.79

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$66.74

Value

$52.33

PnL

-$14.41

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

takeormake<$100

Kings

Invested

$30.95

Value

$25.42

PnL

-$5.53

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SnakeBall<$100

Kings

Invested

$37.76

Value

$23.04

PnL

-$14.72

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.