76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$141.92

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 97.2¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,577

Combined PnL+$165.45

Under4 traders

Total Value$432.32

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL-$23.53

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 75.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1.86	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 88¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$66.68	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 83.2¢	$524.2	$614.53	+$90.32	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 68¢	$484.69	$545.16	+$125.46	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 85.5¢	$390.27	$284.57	-$105.7	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
└ Over leg	Overavg 85.5¢	$215.02	$222.56	+$7.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.5¢	$175.25	$62.01	-$113.24
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 38.1¢	$256.83	$235.9	-$20.93	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 37¢	$101.06	$95.6	-$5.46	49% 115-122 (237)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 87¢	$84.39	$94.62	+$10.23	53% 3775-3371 (7146)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$55.87	$57.52	+$1.64	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$42.09	$43.31	+$1.22	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
RN1<$100	Overavg 80.5¢	$29.5	$32.4	+$2.89	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 62¢	$42.24	$18.45	+$0.95	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 62¢	$13.52	$8.79	+$0.41	50% 27958-27406 (55364)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,175.54

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.86

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,068.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$66.68

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$524.2

Value

$614.53

PnL

+$90.32

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$484.69

Value

$545.16

PnL

+$125.46

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$390.27

Value

$284.57

PnL

-$105.7

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

Both legs:

Over$215.0285.5¢+$7.54

Under$175.2532.5¢-$113.24

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$256.83

Value

$235.9

PnL

-$20.93

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$101.06

Value

$95.6

PnL

-$5.46

Record

49%

115-122 (237)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$84.39

Value

$94.62

PnL

+$10.23

Record

53%

3775-3371 (7146)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.87

Value

$57.52

PnL

+$1.64

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.09

Value

$43.31

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$29.5

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$2.89

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$42.24

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$0.95

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$13.52

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$0.41

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.