Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (62%) · Nuggets at 62¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Trail Blazers39¢Nuggets61¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 62%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$15.39

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers39%

Nuggets62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,197

Combined PnL-$74.37

Nuggets8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,129

Combined PnL+$58.98

Trail Blazers — 38%Nuggets — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNuggets 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNuggets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNuggets 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884CTR	Trail Blazersavg 39¢	$286.29	$1.8K	-$43.65	49% 2926-3045 (5971)
SU SunlineTicker	Nuggetsavg 61¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10.66	62% 4294-2628 (6922)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$30.74	59% 258-178 (436)
nigiri99	Nuggetsavg 57¢	$362.52	$391.14	+$28.62	46% 7287-8597 (15884)
FE ferdinand2	Nuggetsavg 61¢	$328.34	$331.04	+$2.69	51% 997-961 (1958)
OD OddstormCTR	Trail Blazersavg 42.7¢	$314.42	$313.34	-$28.57	48% 7159-7651 (14810)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Nuggetsavg 61¢	$257.57	$259.68	+$2.11	53% 5749-5085 (10834)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Trail Blazersavg 38.7¢	$218.33	$217.15	-$1.19	54% 3477-3013 (6490)
VeryLucky888	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$448.09	$148.06	+$3.61	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
funnydayCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40¢	$80	$76	-$1	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
38 38791873984189<$100	Nuggetsavg 60¢	$62.4	$64.25	+$1.84	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 38¢	$3.23	$3.27	+$0.04	50% 25000-24720 (49720)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nuggetsavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.05	+$0.03	52% 7639-6913 (14552)

6512395314597884CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$286.29

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$43.65

Record

49%

2926-3045 (5971)

SunlineTicker

Nuggets

Invested

$1,300.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10.66

Record

62%

4294-2628 (6922)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Nuggets

Invested

$1,229.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.74

Record

59%

258-178 (436)

nigiri99

Nuggets

Invested

$362.52

Value

$391.14

PnL

+$28.62

Record

46%

7287-8597 (15884)

ferdinand2

Nuggets

Invested

$328.34

Value

$331.04

PnL

+$2.69

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

OddstormCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$314.42

Value

$313.34

PnL

-$28.57

Record

48%

7159-7651 (14810)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Nuggets

Invested

$257.57

Value

$259.68

PnL

+$2.11

Record

53%

5749-5085 (10834)

HerdoniaCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$218.33

Value

$217.15

PnL

-$1.19

Record

54%

3477-3013 (6490)

VeryLucky888

Nuggets

Invested

$448.09

Value

$148.06

PnL

+$3.61

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

funnydayCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$80

Value

$76

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

38791873984189<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$62.4

Value

$64.25

PnL

+$1.84

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

sentrioCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

25000-24720 (49720)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNuggets 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNuggets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNuggets 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nuggets 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.