Spurs vs. Suns: O/U 227.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$1.65

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 55.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares10,645

Combined PnL-$365.46

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,474

Combined PnL+$363.81

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.4K	-$337.62	8% 2-23 (25)
IA ianf2026	Underavg 51¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$266.84	0% 0-42 (42)
73 739633786	Underavg 51¢	$746.64	$797.88	+$51.24	0% 0-75 (75)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.6¢	$527.16	$557	+$29.84	30% 29-67 (96)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$375.39	$351.53	-$23.86	54% 248-213 (461)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 50¢	$149.83	$163.31	+$13.48	— 0-9 (9)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$100.18	$101.25	+$1.07	9% 16-167 (183)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$78.75	$79.63	+$0.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$21.43	$21.63	+$0.2
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$49.41	$49.94	+$0.53	7% 15-191 (206)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 48.4¢	$37.12	$34.88	-$2.23	24% 59-185 (244)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 49¢	$20	$21.8	+$1.8	49% 398-410 (808)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$18.13	$16.84	-$1.3	48% 179-191 (370)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 51¢	$12.67	$13.28	+$0.61	53% 100-87 (187)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$13.72	$12.74	-$0.98	42% 28-38 (66)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$337.62

Record

2-23 (25)

ianf2026

Under

Invested

$3,888.24

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$266.84

Record

0-42 (42)

739633786

Under

Invested

$746.64

Value

$797.88

PnL

+$51.24

Record

0-75 (75)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$527.16

Value

$557

PnL

+$29.84

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$375.39

Value

$351.53

PnL

-$23.86

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$149.83

Value

$163.31

PnL

+$13.48

Record

—

0-9 (9)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$100.18

Value

$101.25

PnL

+$1.07

Record

16-167 (183)

Both legs:

Invested

$49.41

Value

$49.94

PnL

+$0.53

Record

15-191 (206)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.12

Value

$34.88

PnL

-$2.23

Record

24%

59-185 (244)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$21.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.13

Value

$16.84

PnL

-$1.3

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$12.67

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

100-87 (187)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.72

Value

$12.74

PnL

-$0.98

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.