Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 225.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 55¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 12

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

-$9.96

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares13,979

Combined PnL-$34

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,399

Combined PnL+$24.04

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 54.7¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	-$31.35	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 44¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$128.67	48% 101-110 (211)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$920	-$80	23% 7-24 (31)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 49¢	$402.29	$377.66	-$24.63	14% 75-471 (546)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$294.76	$292.38	-$2.38	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$196	$190.75	-$5.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.2¢	$98.76	$101.63	+$2.87
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$244.71	$241.13	-$3.59	20% 97-381 (478)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$196	$190.75	-$5.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$48.71	$50.38	+$1.66
VeryLucky888	Overavg 54¢	$139.26	$138.03	-$1.24	51% 446-422 (868)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 54¢	$115.02	$113.96	-$1.06	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 56¢	$23	$22.8	-$0.2	54% 565-475 (1040)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 54¢	$5.15	$5	-$0.15	32% 285-613 (898)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$7,746.4

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$31.35

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$3,774.4

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$128.67

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$920

PnL

-$80

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$402.29

Value

$377.66

PnL

-$24.63

Record

14%

75-471 (546)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$294.76

Value

$292.38

PnL

-$2.38

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

Both legs:

Over$19656¢-$5.25

Under$98.7644.2¢+$2.87

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$244.71

Value

$241.13

PnL

-$3.59

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

Both legs:

Invested

$139.26

Value

$138.03

PnL

-$1.24

Record

51%

446-422 (868)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$115.02

Value

$113.96

PnL

-$1.06

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$23

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

565-475 (1040)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.