Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 227.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 50¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$331.6

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 49.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,469

Combined PnL+$292.87

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,737

Combined PnL+$38.73

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 51¢	$4.9K	$5.2K	+$280.71	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
PP ppku6298	Overavg 50¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$38.64	5% 5-103 (108)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$346.5	$346.5	+$0	20% 97-381 (478)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 50¢	$175	$189	+$14	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$23.51	$22.66	-$0.86	37% 340-570 (910)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$20.96	$21.17	+$0.21	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$18.17	$19.14	+$0.97	54% 563-474 (1037)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$4.9	$4.95	+$0.05	32% 282-611 (893)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 45¢	$3.86	$3.95	+$0.09	30% 372-861 (1233)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$132.47	$1.15	-$2.22	52% 445-417 (862)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$4,877.32

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$280.71

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

ppku6298

Over

Invested

$3,864.19

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$38.64

Record

5-103 (108)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$346.5

Value

$346.5

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$175

Value

$189

PnL

+$14

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.51

Value

$22.66

PnL

-$0.86

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.96

Value

$21.17

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.17

Value

$19.14

PnL

+$0.97

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$3.86

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.09

Record

30%

372-861 (1233)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$132.47

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$2.22

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.