Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Falcons, while the market favors Bengals (80%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bengals (-5.5)

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (73%) · Falcons at 21¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8

Bengals80¢Falcons20¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 20.5¢

-54% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidFalcons at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Bengals 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals80%

Falcons21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals4 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares13,834

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Falcons11 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares18,351

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Bengals — 27%Falcons — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Bengalsavg 59¢	$6.2K	$6.8K	+$630.46	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Falconsavg 37.8¢	$3.2K	$2.2K	-$945.02	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bengalsavg 50.6¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$465.8	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Falconsavg 59.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$17.32	60% 4654-3069 (7723)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 59.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$17.32
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 42¢	$702.24	$702.24	+$0
AN Anon455CTR	Falconsavg 54¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$773.68	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 56.4¢	$1.0K	$486.34	-$529.81	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
GC GC-PCTR	Falconsavg 58¢	$443.04	$439.22	-$3.82	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
RN1CTR	Falconsavg 37¢	$889	$420.71	-$468.29	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
NM NM-PCTR	Falconsavg 57.5¢	$295.47	$298.04	+$2.57	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Bengalsavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Falconsavg 37¢	$103.37	$97.78	-$5.59	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Falconsavg 58¢	$31.9	$31.62	-$0.27	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 51.3¢	$56.97	$29.42	-$27.55	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Falconsavg 45¢	$26.74	$16.34	-$10.4	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Falconsavg 45¢	$26.74	$15.75	-$10.99	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Bengalsavg 39¢	$1.92	$2.02	+$0.1	54% 18557-15589 (34146)

CUTJALENHURTS

Bengals

Invested

$6,199.39

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$630.46

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Falcons

Invested

$3,161.21

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$945.02

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bengals

Invested

$1,578.7

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$465.8

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1,736.69

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$17.32

Record

60%

4654-3069 (7723)

Both legs:

Falcons$1,034.4559.7¢-$17.32

Bengals$702.2442¢+$0

Anon455CTR

Falcons

Invested

$2,144.41

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$773.68

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,033.75

Value

$486.34

PnL

-$529.81

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

GC-PCTR

Falcons

Invested

$443.04

Value

$439.22

PnL

-$3.82

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

RN1CTR

Falcons

Invested

$889

Value

$420.71

PnL

-$468.29

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

NM-PCTR

Falcons

Invested

$295.47

Value

$298.04

PnL

+$2.57

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Bengals

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

6512395314597884CTR

Falcons

Invested

$103.37

Value

$97.78

PnL

-$5.59

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

RLWGCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$31.9

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$56.97

Value

$29.42

PnL

-$27.55

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

VenusianCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$26.74

Value

$16.34

PnL

-$10.4

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$26.74

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$10.99

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Bengals

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Research grade

AvoidFalcons at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Bengals 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.