Spread: Browns (-3.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (88%) · Steelers at 76¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 1

Browns25¢Steelers75¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Steelers

Consensus Traders

Steelers 88%

Total Value

$45.1K

Combined PnL

-$152.92

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 75.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Browns25%

Steelers76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Steelers7 traders

Total Value$45.1K

Total Shares59,426

Combined PnL-$154.17

Browns1 trader

Total Value$57.5

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$1.25

Steelers — 88%Browns — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSteelers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSteelers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSteelers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Steelers 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Steelersavg 76¢	$23.9K	$23.8K	-$154.9	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888	Steelersavg 76¢	$11.6K	$11.3K	-$69.87	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HI hi774c	Steelersavg 76¢	$8.8K	$8.9K	+$57.93	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Steelersavg 76¢	$760	$770	+$15	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Steelersavg 76¢	$152	$151	-$1	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
0xheavy888	Steelersavg 76.7¢	$128.8	$126.84	-$1.96	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Brownsavg 23¢	$57.5	$57.5	+$1.25	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Steelersavg 76¢	$31.92	$32.34	+$0.63	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

HomeRunHazard

Steelers

Invested

$23,916.19

Value

$23.8K

PnL

-$154.9

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

VeryLucky888

Steelers

Invested

$11,595.02

Value

$11.3K

PnL

-$69.87

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

hi774c

Steelers

Invested

$8,805.58

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$57.93

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Steelers

Invested

$760

Value

$770

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Steelers

Invested

$152

Value

$151

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

0xheavy888

Steelers

Invested

$128.8

Value

$126.84

PnL

-$1.96

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$57.5

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Steelers

Invested

$31.92

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$0.63

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSteelers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSteelers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSteelers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Steelers 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Steelers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.