Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Rams vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 47¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$59.47

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 47¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares13,003

Combined PnL+$269.96

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,990

Combined PnL-$210.49

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 47¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$74.51	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
BI biying88888	Overavg 53.6¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$106.26	48% 219-239 (458)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$117.08	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 45¢	$754.92	$813.63	+$58.72	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 45¢	$750.57	$808.95	+$58.38	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 44¢	$678.6	$731.96	+$53.36	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$333.58	$349.32	+$15.74	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$262	$291	+$29	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
OD Oddstorm	Overavg 54¢	$162	$166.5	+$4.5	48% 8319-8875 (17194)
CM cm2897	Overavg 56¢	$112	$103	-$9	50% 2562-2599 (5161)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$75.2	$71.2	-$4	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 53¢	$38.36	$39.98	+$1.62	48% 70219-75923 (146142)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$3,535.97

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$74.51

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$3,458.93

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$106.26

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$1,839.84

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$117.08

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$754.92

Value

$813.63

PnL

+$58.72

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$750.57

Value

$808.95

PnL

+$58.38

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$678.6

Value

$731.96

PnL

+$53.36

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$333.58

Value

$349.32

PnL

+$15.74

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$262

Value

$291

PnL

+$29

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Oddstorm

Over

Invested

$162

Value

$166.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

48%

8319-8875 (17194)

cm2897

Over

Invested

$112

Value

$103

PnL

-$9

Record

50%

2562-2599 (5161)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.2

Value

$71.2

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$38.36

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$1.62

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.