Spread: Packers (-5.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (70%) · Vikings at 59¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Packers42¢Vikings58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 70%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$539.21

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 58.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Packers42%

Vikings59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings7 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares16,813

Combined PnL+$677.94

Packers3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,749

Combined PnL-$138.72

Vikings — 70%Packers — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVikings 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Vikingsavg 57¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$143.39	57% 3336-2523 (5859)
RollAwayTheDew	Vikingsavg 51¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$312.46	14% 39-249 (288)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Packersavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$124.97	28% 48-121 (169)
IC ic4cream	Vikingsavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$204.06	3% 14-450 (464)
fyrskenCTR	Packersavg 43¢	$215	$207.5	-$7.5	47% 21-24 (45)
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 53¢	$103.94	$114.62	+$10.68	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Packersavg 44¢	$110	$103.75	-$6.25	27% 84-232 (316)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Vikingsavg 57¢	$42.18	$43.29	+$1.11	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Vikingsavg 51¢	$77.02	$40.85	+$7.88	24% 42-134 (176)
GA Gaditima	Vikingsavg 51¢	$240.22	$16.11	-$1.64	48% 139-152 (291)

HomeRunHazard

Vikings

Invested

$5,448.65

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$143.39

Record

57%

3336-2523 (5859)

RollAwayTheDew

Vikings

Invested

$2,124.74

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$312.46

Record

14%

39-249 (288)

Bagwell306CTR

Packers

Invested

$2,199.56

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$124.97

Record

28%

48-121 (169)

ic4cream

Vikings

Invested

$1,387.64

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$204.06

Record

14-450 (464)

fyrskenCTR

Packers

Invested

$215

Value

$207.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

47%

21-24 (45)

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$103.94

Value

$114.62

PnL

+$10.68

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

BoomLaLaCTR

Packers

Invested

$110

Value

$103.75

PnL

-$6.25

Record

27%

84-232 (316)

ferdinand2<$100

Vikings

Invested

$42.18

Value

$43.29

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

Oddstorm<$100

Vikings

Invested

$77.02

Value

$40.85

PnL

+$7.88

Record

24%

42-134 (176)

Gaditima

Vikings

Invested

$240.22

Value

$16.11

PnL

-$1.64

Record

48%

139-152 (291)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrVikings 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.