Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Chiefs (81%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jets vs. Chiefs

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (30%) · Jets at 20¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8

Jets20¢Chiefs80¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 30%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$115.88

Smart Money Entry

19.1¢ → 19.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJets at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jets20%

Chiefs81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares22,495

Combined PnL+$100.37

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,542

Combined PnL+$15.51

Jets — 30%Chiefs — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jets) and the top 1000 (9 on Chiefs) disagree here.

whaleJets 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpChiefs 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrChiefs 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 19¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$105.53	52% 4917-4466 (9383)
DA darkumbreon88	Chiefsavg 80¢	$558.32	$561.81	+$3.49	64% 1961-1091 (3052)
38 38791873984189	Chiefsavg 81¢	$607.24	$506.64	-$2.64	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
HE Herdonia	Chiefsavg 80¢	$460.15	$462.87	+$5.5	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
SN SnakeBall	Chiefsavg 79¢	$314.89	$320.87	+$7.97	51% 37671-36895 (74566)
DV dv-pmCTR	Jetsavg 20¢	$221.22	$215.69	-$5.53	49% 3327-3529 (6856)
BO BoomLaLa	Chiefsavg 80¢	$200	$201.25	+$1.25	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Jetsavg 19¢	$57.31	$53.8	+$0.37	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Chiefsavg 81¢	$4.86	$4.83	-$0.03	51% 4768-4629 (9397)
NM NM-P<$100	Chiefsavg 81¢	$4.26	$4.24	-$0.03	64% 9927-5529 (15456)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$4,010.13

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$105.53

Record

52%

4917-4466 (9383)

darkumbreon88

Chiefs

Invested

$558.32

Value

$561.81

PnL

+$3.49

Record

64%

1961-1091 (3052)

38791873984189

Chiefs

Invested

$607.24

Value

$506.64

PnL

-$2.64

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

Herdonia

Chiefs

Invested

$460.15

Value

$462.87

PnL

+$5.5

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

SnakeBall

Chiefs

Invested

$314.89

Value

$320.87

PnL

+$7.97

Record

51%

37671-36895 (74566)

dv-pmCTR

Jets

Invested

$221.22

Value

$215.69

PnL

-$5.53

Record

49%

3327-3529 (6856)

BoomLaLa

Chiefs

Invested

$200

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$57.31

Value

$53.8

PnL

+$0.37

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

6512395314597884<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.83

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

4768-4629 (9397)

NM-P<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$0.03

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

Research grade

AvoidJets at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jets) and the top 1000 (9 on Chiefs) disagree here.

whaleJets 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpChiefs 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrChiefs 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.