Seahawks vs. Raiders

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (44%) · Seahawks at 74¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Seahawks74¢Raiders26¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$123.31

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 73.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks74%

Raiders27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks4 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares8,157

Combined PnL+$394.03

Raiders5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares8,154

Combined PnL-$270.73

Seahawks — 44%Raiders — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (8 on Seahawks) disagree here.

ctrRaiders 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Seahawksavg 69.4¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$199.77	1% 4-440 (444)
BA Bayupati	Seahawksavg 62¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$193.74	5% 6-122 (128)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Raidersavg 27¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$40	1% 1-179 (180)
VeryLucky888CTR	Raidersavg 30¢	$799.81	$706.17	-$93.64	50% 262-258 (520)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Raidersavg 33¢	$673.69	$637.55	-$36.13	47% 149-168 (317)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 62¢	$274.04	$322.66	+$48.62
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 33¢	$399.65	$314.89	-$84.75
OD OddstormARB<$100	Raidersavg 38¢	$689.9	$619.89	-$70.01	15% 16-94 (110)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 62.9¢	$309.9	$359.89	+$49.99
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 38¢	$380	$260	-$120
FL Flaznorp	Seahawksavg 73¢	$549.37	$549.37	+$0	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
38 38791873984189CTR	Raidersavg 32.4¢	$708.95	$336.92	-$113.55	48% 939-1010 (1949)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Raidersavg 38¢	$52.06	$35.62	-$16.44	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
RL RLWG<$100	Seahawksavg 71¢	$18.7	$19.23	+$0.53	68% 1593-744 (2337)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raidersavg 32.6¢	$39.77	$14.56	-$7.1	49% 440-464 (904)

ic4cream

Seahawks

Invested

$3,994.47

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$199.77

Record

4-440 (444)

Bayupati

Seahawks

Invested

$1,117.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$193.74

Record

6-122 (128)

stackingsatsCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$40

Record

1-179 (180)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raiders

Invested

$799.81

Value

$706.17

PnL

-$93.64

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$673.69

Value

$637.55

PnL

-$36.13

Record

47%

149-168 (317)

Both legs:

Seahawks$274.0462¢+$48.62

Raiders$399.6533¢-$84.75

OddstormARB<$100

Raiders

Invested

$689.9

Value

$619.89

PnL

-$70.01

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

Both legs:

Seahawks$309.962.9¢+$49.99

Raiders$38038¢-$120

Flaznorp

Seahawks

Invested

$549.37

Value

$549.37

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

38791873984189CTR

Raiders

Invested

$708.95

Value

$336.92

PnL

-$113.55

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$52.06

Value

$35.62

PnL

-$16.44

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

RLWG<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$18.7

Value

$19.23

PnL

+$0.53

Record

68%

1593-744 (2337)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$39.77

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$7.1

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (8 on Seahawks) disagree here.

ctrRaiders 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.