Spread: Bengals (-21.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (88%) · Titans at 79¢ · $70K held · ends Nov 1

Bengals22¢Titans78¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 88%

Total Value

$69.7K

Combined PnL

-$27.85

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 78.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals22%

Titans79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans7 traders

Total Value$69.7K

Total Shares87,983

Combined PnL-$34.31

Bengals1 trader

Total Value$53.78

Total Shares256

Combined PnL+$6.46

Titans — 88%Bengals — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTitans 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Titans 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Titansavg 79¢	$26.5K	$26.4K	-$138.8	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
UP UpTheBlues	Titansavg 79¢	$13.3K	$13.2K	-$84.26	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
VeryLucky888	Titansavg 79¢	$11.8K	$11.9K	+$75	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
HI hi774c	Titansavg 79¢	$9.3K	$9.3K	+$58.72	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Titansavg 79¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$50	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Titansavg 79¢	$790	$795	+$5	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 19¢	$48.6	$53.78	+$6.46	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Titansavg 79.5¢	$52.44	$52.47	+$0.03	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

HomeRunHazard

Titans

Invested

$26,533.07

Value

$26.4K

PnL

-$138.8

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

UpTheBlues

Titans

Invested

$13,312.29

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$84.26

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

VeryLucky888

Titans

Invested

$11,850

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

hi774c

Titans

Invested

$9,277.34

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$58.72

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Titans

Invested

$7,900

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$50

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Titans

Invested

$790

Value

$795

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$48.6

Value

$53.78

PnL

+$6.46

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Titans

Invested

$52.44

Value

$52.47

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTitans 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Titans 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.