Spread: Oilers (-2.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (30%) · Ducks at 98¢ · $509 held · ended Nov 6

Oilers2¢Ducks98¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 30%

Total Value

$509.25

Combined PnL

-$138.31

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 98¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oilers2%

Ducks98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ducks3 traders

Total Value$369.08

Total Shares459

Combined PnL-$15.73

Oilers7 traders

Total Value$140.16

Total Shares1,258

Combined PnL-$122.58

Ducks — 30%Oilers — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Ducksavg 84.7¢	$350.25	$337.12	-$13.12	59% 32988-23170 (56158)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Oilersavg 16¢	$24	$36	+$12	53% 23655-20823 (44478)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Ducksavg 76.9¢	$30.76	$27.6	-$3.16	82% 7367-1623 (8990)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Oilersavg 16.1¢	$60.91	$26.15	-$32.91	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Oilersavg 16¢	$21.52	$24.21	+$2.69	47% 1240-1418 (2658)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Oilersavg 35.6¢	$93.18	$23.66	-$69.51	51% 25823-24512 (50335)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Oilersavg 16¢	$46.56	$16.04	-$30.52	47% 11750-13484 (25234)
RN1CTR<$100	Oilersavg 15¢	$8.82	$10.29	+$1.47	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Ducksavg 72¢	$3.8	$4.36	+$0.55	46% 1548-1827 (3375)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Oilersavg 24¢	$9.6	$3.8	-$5.8	48% 61256-66065 (127321)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Ducks

Invested

$350.25

Value

$337.12

PnL

-$13.12

Record

59%

32988-23170 (56158)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$24

Value

$36

PnL

+$12

Record

53%

23655-20823 (44478)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Ducks

Invested

$30.76

Value

$27.6

PnL

-$3.16

Record

82%

7367-1623 (8990)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$60.91

Value

$26.15

PnL

-$32.91

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$21.52

Value

$24.21

PnL

+$2.69

Record

47%

1240-1418 (2658)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$93.18

Value

$23.66

PnL

-$69.51

Record

51%

25823-24512 (50335)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$46.56

Value

$16.04

PnL

-$30.52

Record

47%

11750-13484 (25234)

RN1CTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$8.82

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$1.47

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Ducks

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0.55

Record

46%

1548-1827 (3375)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$9.6

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$5.8

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.