Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 5.8¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$-5.2K

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 5.8¢

-92% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,162

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$689.88

Total Shares10,614

Combined PnL$-6.7K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Noavg 27.3¢	$546.31	$1.8K	+$1.3K	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
FI firegoldCTR	Yesavg 76.3¢	$4.9K	$414.33	$-4.4K	59% 323-224 (547)
2B9S	Noavg 18¢	$40.58	$196.71	+$156.14	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 46.8¢	$905.4	$124.36	-$781.52	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
perfectnostalgiaCTR	Yesavg 75.8¢	$1.4K	$122.55	$-1.3K	55% 338-273 (611)
Nadmi<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.62	$18.52	+$17.9	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
JJoCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$87.65	$17.8	-$68.89	66% 944-496 (1440)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 55.4¢	$75.87	$10.85	-$65.02	50% 357-357 (714)

SunlineTicker

Invested

$546.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

firegoldCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,856.5

Value

$414.33

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

2B9S

Invested

$40.58

Value

$196.71

PnL

+$156.14

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$905.4

Value

$124.36

PnL

-$781.52

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

perfectnostalgiaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,435.04

Value

$122.55

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

Nadmi<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$18.52

PnL

+$17.9

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

JJoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.65

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$68.89

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.87

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$65.02

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.1%

5.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1315.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

1415.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.