OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 61¢ · $941 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$941.23

Combined PnL

$174.36

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 60.5¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$185.53

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$74.37

No2 traders

Total Value$187.51

Total Shares427

Combined PnL+$99.99

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4931h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 66.8¢	$1.6K	$567.92	+$80.11	34% 19258-36883 (56141)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.8¢	$342.56	$284.66	-$228.13
└ No leg	Noavg 29.3¢	$188.68	$283.27	+$308.24
JE Jesetrading	Yesavg 56¢	$39.59	$174.53	+$50.56	67% 659-322 (981)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 9.4¢	$37.29	$174.01	+$107.21	52% 30941-28990 (59931)
TT tttt123CTR<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$20.73	$13.51	-$7.22	72% 1665-632 (2297)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$3.32	$9.7	+$6.38	17% 4501-22033 (26534)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$0.37	$0.66	+$0.34	51% 158-149 (307)
HI hithitfar	Yesavg 61.2¢	$216.05	$0.64	+$17.1	58% 826-586 (1412)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,555.57

Value

$567.92

PnL

+$80.11

Record

34%

19258-36883 (56141)

Both legs:

Yes$342.5666.8¢-$228.13

No$188.6829.3¢+$308.24

Jesetrading

Yes

Invested

$39.59

Value

$174.53

PnL

+$50.56

Record

67%

659-322 (981)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$37.29

Value

$174.01

PnL

+$107.21

Record

52%

30941-28990 (59931)

tttt123CTR<$100

Invested

$20.73

Value

$13.51

PnL

-$7.22

Record

72%

1665-632 (2297)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$6.38

Record

17%

4501-22033 (26534)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.66

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

158-149 (307)

hithitfar

Yes

Invested

$216.05

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$17.1

Record

58%

826-586 (1412)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4931h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.4%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.