Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 42¢ · $630 held · ended Nov 1

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$630.47

Combined PnL

$10.07

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 41.5¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$549.22

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL-$5.63

Yes1 trader

Total Value$81.25

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$15.7

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Noavg 56¢	$230.72	$226.6	-$4.12	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 45.6¢	$120.02	$111.98	-$8.04	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$76.24	$85.99	+$9.75	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 50.4¢	$65.55	$81.25	+$15.7	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$81.8	$80.98	-$0.82	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$27.32	$25.33	-$1.98	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 33.6¢	$8.59	$13.17	-$0.54	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$5.04	$5.16	+$0.12	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

RN1CTR

Invested

$230.72

Value

$226.6

PnL

-$4.12

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$120.02

Value

$111.98

PnL

-$8.04

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$76.24

Value

$85.99

PnL

+$9.75

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.55

Value

$81.25

PnL

+$15.7

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$81.8

Value

$80.98

PnL

-$0.82

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$27.32

Value

$25.33

PnL

-$1.98

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$8.59

Value

$13.17

PnL

-$0.54

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.