Spread: Club Universitario de Deportes (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold CD Moquegua (50%) · CD Moquegua at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Club Universitario de Deportes35¢CD Moquegua65¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Moquegua

Consensus Traders

CD Moquegua 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$48.73

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 65¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Moquegua at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Moquegua

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Club Universitario de Deportes35%

CD Moquegua65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Moquegua4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,340

Combined PnL+$56.51

Club Universitario de Deportes4 traders

Total Value$904.3

Total Shares2,649

Combined PnL-$7.77

CD Moquegua — 50%Club Universitario de Deportes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on CD Moquegua. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Moquegua 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCD Moquegua 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Club Universitario de Deportes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	CD Moqueguaavg 66.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$48.94	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 70.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$67.85	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
└ CD Moquegua leg	CD Moqueguaavg 70.5¢	$1.1K	$987.53	-$84.21
└ Club Universitario de Deportes leg	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 33¢	$270	$286.36	+$16.36
SE sentrio	CD Moqueguaavg 66.4¢	$442.69	$452.65	+$9.96	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LimousinCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 34.1¢	$409.75	$421.18	+$11.43	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 36.1¢	$684.37	$222.42	-$24.72	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 33¢	$173.78	$184.2	+$10.43	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 34.1¢	$81.4	$76.5	-$4.9	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
SN SnakeBall<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 74¢	$26.42	$24.43	-$1.99	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 65¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

Flaznorp

CD Moquegua

Invested

$2,088.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$48.94

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$1,341.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$67.85

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Both legs:

CD Moquegua$1,071.7570.5¢-$84.21

Club Universitario de Deportes$27033¢+$16.36

sentrio

CD Moquegua

Invested

$442.69

Value

$452.65

PnL

+$9.96

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LimousinCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$409.75

Value

$421.18

PnL

+$11.43

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

LightParadoxCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$684.37

Value

$222.42

PnL

-$24.72

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

MadridTimeCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$173.78

Value

$184.2

PnL

+$10.43

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

VenusianCTR<$100

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$81.4

Value

$76.5

PnL

-$4.9

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

SnakeBall<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$26.42

Value

$24.43

PnL

-$1.99

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

ameisgoat11<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

NeutralCD Moquegua at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CD Moquegua

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on CD Moquegua. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Moquegua 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCD Moquegua 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Club Universitario de Deportes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Moquegua wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.