Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Botoşani vs. ASC Oțelul Galați end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 41¢ · $402 held · ended Nov 9

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$402.41

Combined PnL

-$14.84

Smart Money Entry

37.1¢ → 40.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$288.75

Total Shares378

Combined PnL+$18.67

Yes5 traders

Total Value$113.66

Total Shares397

Combined PnL-$33.51

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 62.7¢	$133.58	$147.57	+$13.99	—
RN1CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$116.26	$84.96	-$31.3	—
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 67¢	$75.89	$80.99	+$5.1	—
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 72¢	$42.37	$42.08	-$0.29	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$21.86	$20.1	-$1.76	—
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 72¢	$18.24	$18.11	-$0.13	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$4.5	$4.27	-$0.23	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$2.4	$2.21	-$0.19	—
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$2.15	$2.12	-$0.03	—

Flaznorp

Invested

$133.58

Value

$147.57

PnL

+$13.99

Record

—

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$116.26

Value

$84.96

PnL

-$31.3

Record

—

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$75.89

Value

$80.99

PnL

+$5.1

Record

—

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$42.37

Value

$42.08

PnL

-$0.29

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.86

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$1.76

Record

—

Limousin<$100

Invested

$18.24

Value

$18.11

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.23

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$0.19

Record

—

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.