Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 67¢ · $18K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$17.7K
$155.48
65¢ → 66.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1358h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
28 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alwaysOn | Noavg 67.5¢ | $9.9K | $9.4K | -$443.61 | 77% 632-185 (817) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $3.2K | $3.8K | +$519.95 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 55.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$84.19 | 66% 487-255 (742) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$43.14 | 50% 970-988 (1958) |
88 881112CTR | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $692.74 | $733.65 | +$40.91 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Yesavg 38.7¢ | $155.28 | $163.62 | +$8.34 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $79.23 | $67.96 | -$11.28 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $27.58 | $21.15 | +$0.13 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$9,922.59
Value
$9.4K
PnL
-$443.61
Record
77%
632-185 (817)
CarCTRInvested
$3,231.69
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$519.95
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$2,434.87
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$84.19
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$1,099.39
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$43.14
Record
50%
970-988 (1958)
Invested
$692.74
Value
$733.65
PnL
+$40.91
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$155.28
Value
$163.62
PnL
+$8.34
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$79.23
Value
$67.96
PnL
-$11.28
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$27.58
Value
$21.15
PnL
+$0.13
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.