Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $25K held · ends Dec 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$24.6K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 97.6¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares25,022

Combined PnL+$4.7K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$256.52

Total Shares9,328

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
How.Dare.You	Noavg 76.8¢	$14.8K	$17.9K	+$3.8K	72% 815-323 (1138)
FA fastviking	Noavg 82.9¢	$5.4K	$6.3K	+$912.15	69% 33-15 (48)
ST stupid22	Noavg 79¢	$128.05	$136.72	+$8.68	94% 412-26 (438)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$946.71	$136.55	-$810.16	57% 766-585 (1351)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$585.89	$75.44	-$508.11	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$260.06	$39.03	-$221.03	55% 1191-966 (2157)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$64	$5.5	-$58.4	62% 649-396 (1045)
Donny.T<$100	Noavg 75¢	$0.75	$0.97	+$0.22	72% 484-187 (671)

How.Dare.You

Invested

$14,801.32

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

72%

815-323 (1138)

fastviking

Invested

$5,388.98

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$912.15

Record

69%

33-15 (48)

stupid22

Invested

$128.05

Value

$136.72

PnL

+$8.68

Record

94%

412-26 (438)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$946.71

Value

$136.55

PnL

-$810.16

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$585.89

Value

$75.44

PnL

-$508.11

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$260.06

Value

$39.03

PnL

-$221.03

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$58.4

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

Donny.T<$100

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.22

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.