Consensus PnL -$683K · win rate 70% (657–276, n=933) · hand-picked wallet · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-683.1K
Record
657W / 276L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 933 settled
Batting Avg
53.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#743
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
100,696
Markets
1,271
Volume
$20.6M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 10 on the consensus side (100%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $49K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $44K · now 94¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $24K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboNo $18K · now 98¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No $8.9K · now 93¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (57% of 21)
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No $5.3K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No $4.2K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?No $713 · now 17¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
Specialties
1,124 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 80¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 88% of 212 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +5%
- Finance
+8 pts
side won 89% of 121 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +11%
- Entertainment
+9 pts
side won 82% of 39 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 72% of 251 at an average 79¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 10% of 61)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 30% of 64)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 58% of 120)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 93% of 879)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.