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8D
Consensus PnL -$416K · win rate 81% (17–4, n=21) · hand-picked wallet · holds 8 consensus positions
0x8d0c615f...ec7d5839Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-415.9K
Record
17W / 4L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 21 settled
Batting Avg
58.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#420
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
3,308
Markets
78
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)- Trump out as President before 2027?No $9.7K · now 97¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes $9.6K · now 93¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboNo $6.3K · now 98¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No $3.8K · now 95¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?No $2.8K · now 93¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes $2.4K · now 3¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $713 · now 98¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?No $269 · now 95¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
Specialties
62 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 71¢- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 85% of 40 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +13%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 67% of 12)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 93% of 40)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.