Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 3 Como 1907?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$3.9K
-$13.16
97.5¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$6.07 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$10.13 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $475 | $464.08 | +$0.33 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.9¢ | $206.02 | $201.28 | -$0.41 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 98¢ | $137.22 | $135.66 | -$1.56 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $71.06 | $66.65 | -$4.4 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $13.68 | $13.37 | -$0.04 | 57% 24613-18229 (42842) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $8.14 | $5.06 | -$3.08 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $3.45 | $3.45 | +$0 | 48% 3580-3942 (7522) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $64 | $1.47 | +$0.06 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
Invested
$1,641.14
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$6.07
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$1,412.27
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$10.13
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
VeryLucky888Invested
$475
Value
$464.08
PnL
+$0.33
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$206.02
Value
$201.28
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$137.22
Value
$135.66
PnL
-$1.56
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$71.06
Value
$66.65
PnL
-$4.4
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$13.68
Value
$13.37
PnL
-$0.04
Record
57%
24613-18229 (42842)
Invested
$8.14
Value
$5.06
PnL
-$3.08
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.45
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
3580-3942 (7522)
Invested
$64
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.