Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $18K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$18.4K
-$697.36
89.6¢ → 96.4¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
952h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
10 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $9.5K | $9.1K | +$145.29 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 AngryRhino | Noavg 84¢ | $787.26 | $7.5K | +$1.6K | 69% 133-59 (192) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 83.2¢ | $707.98 | $730.99 | +$23.01 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $2.9K | $496.38 | $-2.4K | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 wish- | Noavg 90.2¢ | $424.75 | $453.56 | +$28.82 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $92.7 | $93.13 | +$3.19 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $16.46 | $8.51 | -$7.95 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $35.34 | $3.96 | -$31.38 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
elmcap2Invested
$9,477.68
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$145.29
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
AngryRhinoInvested
$787.26
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
69%
133-59 (192)
DEGENKHANInvested
$707.98
Value
$730.99
PnL
+$23.01
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$2,930.08
Value
$496.38
PnL
$-2.4K
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
wish-Invested
$424.75
Value
$453.56
PnL
+$28.82
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
Invested
$92.7
Value
$93.13
PnL
+$3.19
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$16.46
Value
$8.51
PnL
-$7.95
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$35.34
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$31.38
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.