Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$3.8K
$397.01
76.5¢ → 90.5¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
683h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaI | Yesavg 78¢ | $2.3K | $2.5K | +$262.29 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
 Barkshire-Hathaway | Yesavg 71.2¢ | $711.42 | $878.96 | +$187.52 | 64% 1093-623 (1716) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 84¢ | $166.12 | $174.11 | +$7.99 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 PorxCTR | Noavg 11.9¢ | $121.73 | $114.25 | -$13.12 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
AL alwaysOnCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $60 | $60 | -$10 | 77% 632-185 (817) |
 Rex416<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $34.5 | $43.99 | +$10.5 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
 Optimus-CTR<$100 | Noavg 28.5¢ | $74.5 | $31.33 | -$48.39 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Yesavg 70.1¢ | $0.78 | $1 | +$0.22 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
Parz1vaIInvested
$2,261.1
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$262.29
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Barkshire-HathawayInvested
$711.42
Value
$878.96
PnL
+$187.52
Record
64%
1093-623 (1716)
Invested
$166.12
Value
$174.11
PnL
+$7.99
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
PorxCTRInvested
$121.73
Value
$114.25
PnL
-$13.12
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Invested
$60
Value
$60
PnL
-$10
Record
77%
632-185 (817)
Rex416<$100Invested
$34.5
Value
$43.99
PnL
+$10.5
Record
57%
2537-1923 (4460)
Optimus-CTR<$100Invested
$74.5
Value
$31.33
PnL
-$48.39
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.22
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.