Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Boluspor leading at halftime?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$1.0K
-$427.18
86.1¢ → 49.5¢
-43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 86.5¢ | $507.37 | $288.37 | -$219 | 58% 49422-35504 (84926) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 13.5¢ | $84.36 | $183.5 | +$99.15 | 50% 27131-27060 (54191) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 71¢ | $227.2 | $161.6 | -$65.6 | 53% 58869-51174 (110043) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $5.72 | $116.6 | -$51.18 | 51% 23350-22134 (45484) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 84¢ | $176.71 | $104.15 | -$72.55 | 50% 35477-34953 (70430) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Noavg 87¢ | $173 | $98.43 | -$74.57 | 54% 5054-4287 (9341) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $65.25 | $37.13 | -$28.13 | 49% 14098-14659 (28757) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $26.9 | $14.9 | -$11.5 | 51% 11618-11037 (22655) |
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100 | Yesavg 77.6¢ | $10.75 | $6.95 | -$3.8 | 64% 8638-4773 (13411) |
Invested
$507.37
Value
$288.37
PnL
-$219
Record
58%
49422-35504 (84926)
Invested
$84.36
Value
$183.5
PnL
+$99.15
Record
50%
27131-27060 (54191)
RN1Invested
$227.2
Value
$161.6
PnL
-$65.6
Record
53%
58869-51174 (110043)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$116.6
PnL
-$51.18
Record
51%
23350-22134 (45484)
Invested
$176.71
Value
$104.15
PnL
-$72.55
Record
50%
35477-34953 (70430)
Invested
$173
Value
$98.43
PnL
-$74.57
Record
54%
5054-4287 (9341)
Invested
$65.25
Value
$37.13
PnL
-$28.13
Record
49%
14098-14659 (28757)
Invested
$26.9
Value
$14.9
PnL
-$11.5
Record
51%
11618-11037 (22655)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$6.95
PnL
-$3.8
Record
64%
8638-4773 (13411)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.