Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-11-04?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 73¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.4K

Combined PnL

$118.98

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 72.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares15,227

Combined PnL+$147.23

Yes2 traders

Total Value$561.61

Total Shares2,080

Combined PnL-$28.25

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 71.9¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$10.66	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$36.49	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.9¢	$928.98	$916.34	-$12.65
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$742.56	$791.7	+$49.14
GC GC-P	Noavg 70.7¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	+$24.4	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 70.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.98	51% 1089-1037 (2126)
NM NM-P	Noavg 70.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$27.24	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
LI Limousin	Noavg 70.6¢	$946.42	$965.45	+$19.03	54% 1184-1023 (2207)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69.7¢	$1.0K	$946.72	+$28.5	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$266.44	$532.57	-$25.74	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
CA Cannae	Noavg 71¢	$385.14	$390.56	+$5.42	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$68.53	$71.55	+$3.01	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$32.09	$29.04	-$2.51	64% 1890-1047 (2937)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.32	$4.32	-$0	52% 1140-1038 (2178)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,369.78

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$10.66

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,671.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$36.49

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

Both legs:

Yes$928.9827.9¢-$12.65

No$742.5668¢+$49.14

GC-P

Invested

$2,152.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$24.4

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,051.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.98

Record

51%

1089-1037 (2126)

NM-P

Invested

$1,022.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$27.24

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

Limousin

Invested

$946.42

Value

$965.45

PnL

+$19.03

Record

54%

1184-1023 (2207)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,026.73

Value

$946.72

PnL

+$28.5

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$266.44

Value

$532.57

PnL

-$25.74

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

Cannae

Invested

$385.14

Value

$390.56

PnL

+$5.42

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$68.53

Value

$71.55

PnL

+$3.01

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.09

Value

$29.04

PnL

-$2.51

Record

64%

1890-1047 (2937)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.32

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

1140-1038 (2178)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.