Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold SK Slavia Praha (56%) · SK Slavia Praha at 69¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Arsenal FC32¢SK Slavia Praha68¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

SK Slavia Praha

Consensus Traders

SK Slavia Praha 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$75.91

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 68.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSK Slavia Praha at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SK Slavia Praha

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arsenal FC32%

SK Slavia Praha69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SK Slavia Praha5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,061

Combined PnL+$61.91

Arsenal FC4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,770

Combined PnL-$137.82

SK Slavia Praha — 56%Arsenal FC — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on SK Slavia Praha. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArsenal FC 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSK Slavia Praha 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSK Slavia Praha 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SK Slavia Praha 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	SK Slavia Prahaavg 67.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$41.28	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
nigiri99CTR	Arsenal FCavg 34.1¢	$1.1K	$998.13	-$135.39	46% 8395-9850 (18245)
VeryLucky888	SK Slavia Prahaavg 67.1¢	$863.85	$888.81	+$24.96	58% 45399-32894 (78293)
38 38791873984189	SK Slavia Prahaavg 69.2¢	$598.82	$592.52	-$6.3	48% 59185-63178 (122363)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Arsenal FCavg 31.6¢	$459.68	$458.72	-$0.96	50% 27753-27615 (55368)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 68.9¢	$81.8	$83.2	+$1.4	58% 19331-14228 (33559)
└ SK Slavia Praha leg	SK Slavia Prahaavg 68.9¢	$58.56	$58.2	-$0.36
└ Arsenal FC leg	Arsenal FCavg 29.3¢	$23.24	$25	+$1.76
SN SnakeBall<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 67¢	$67	$69	+$2	50% 36322-35805 (72127)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 33¢	$34	$10.37	-$0.85	52% 1151-1073 (2224)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Arsenal FCavg 34.1¢	$5.12	$4.5	-$0.62	54% 1184-1019 (2203)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.45	-$0.03	52% 8571-7810 (16381)

Flaznorp

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$1,905.59

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$41.28

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

nigiri99CTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$1,132.98

Value

$998.13

PnL

-$135.39

Record

46%

8395-9850 (18245)

VeryLucky888

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$863.85

Value

$888.81

PnL

+$24.96

Record

58%

45399-32894 (78293)

38791873984189

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$598.82

Value

$592.52

PnL

-$6.3

Record

48%

59185-63178 (122363)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Arsenal FC

Invested

$459.68

Value

$458.72

PnL

-$0.96

Record

50%

27753-27615 (55368)

ghorrockARB<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$81.8

Value

$83.2

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

19331-14228 (33559)

Both legs:

SK Slavia Praha$58.5668.9¢-$0.36

Arsenal FC$23.2429.3¢+$1.76

SnakeBall<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$67

Value

$69

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

36322-35805 (72127)

VenusianCTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$34

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$0.85

Record

52%

1151-1073 (2224)

LimousinCTR<$100

Arsenal FC

Invested

$5.12

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.62

Record

54%

1184-1019 (2203)

ameisgoat11<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8571-7810 (16381)

Research grade

NeutralSK Slavia Praha at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

SK Slavia Praha

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on SK Slavia Praha. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArsenal FC 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrSK Slavia Praha 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSK Slavia Praha 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SK Slavia Praha 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SK Slavia Praha wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.