AZ vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 18%
$2.0K
$0.5
57.8¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 58¢ | $883.92 | $876.3 | -$7.62 | 46% 8591-10242 (18833) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $357 | $361.25 | +$4.25 | 64% 9921-5527 (15448) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $188.53 | $190.77 | +$2.24 | 64% 9962-5595 (15557) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 42.7¢ | $189.83 | $150.72 | +$0.6 | 58% 46675-33635 (80310) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $101.25 | $102.42 | +$1.18 | 51% 25736-24442 (50178) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $84.9 | $84.9 | +$0 | 64% 1960-1090 (3050) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $82.79 | $83.78 | +$0.99 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $82.34 | $81.38 | -$0.96 | 51% 37665-36890 (74555) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $22.42 | $22.16 | -$0.26 | 50% 25814-25509 (51323) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $6.88 | $6.88 | +$0.08 | 49% 14708-15378 (30086) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $4.26 | $4.26 | +$0 | 53% 2573-2253 (4826) |
nigiri99Invested
$883.92
Value
$876.3
PnL
-$7.62
Record
46%
8591-10242 (18833)
Invested
$357
Value
$361.25
PnL
+$4.25
Record
64%
9921-5527 (15448)
Invested
$188.53
Value
$190.77
PnL
+$2.24
Record
64%
9962-5595 (15557)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$189.83
Value
$150.72
PnL
+$0.6
Record
58%
46675-33635 (80310)
Invested
$101.25
Value
$102.42
PnL
+$1.18
Record
51%
25736-24442 (50178)
Invested
$84.9
Value
$84.9
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
1960-1090 (3050)
Invested
$82.79
Value
$83.78
PnL
+$0.99
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
Invested
$82.34
Value
$81.38
PnL
-$0.96
Record
51%
37665-36890 (74555)
Invested
$22.42
Value
$22.16
PnL
-$0.26
Record
50%
25814-25509 (51323)
Invested
$6.88
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
14708-15378 (30086)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2573-2253 (4826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.