Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-11-05?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$52.37

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 81.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,507

Combined PnL+$38.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$459.07

Total Shares2,240

Combined PnL+$13.54

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80¢	$904.06	$921.11	+$17.06	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 80¢	$800	$815	+$15	53% 23478-20703 (44181)
NM NM-P	Noavg 78¢	$662.96	$667.21	+$4.25	64% 9921-5525 (15446)
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$444.4	$455.51	+$11.11	50% 545-553 (1098)
GC GC-P	Noavg 78¢	$398.56	$401.11	+$2.55	64% 9962-5593 (15555)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$10.93	$10.89	-$0.05	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$2.27	$2.16	+$0.05	51% 37659-36887 (74546)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Noavg 81¢	$2.13	$2.14	+$0.01	53% 6257-5537 (11794)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 18¢	$168.49	$1.13	+$2.37	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$0.27	$0.27	+$0.01	50% 28410-28315 (56725)

Flaznorp

Invested

$904.06

Value

$921.11

PnL

+$17.06

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

cigarettes

Invested

$800

Value

$815

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

23478-20703 (44181)

NM-P

Invested

$662.96

Value

$667.21

PnL

+$4.25

Record

64%

9921-5525 (15446)

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Yes

Invested

$444.4

Value

$455.51

PnL

+$11.11

Record

50%

545-553 (1098)

GC-P

Invested

$398.56

Value

$401.11

PnL

+$2.55

Record

64%

9962-5593 (15555)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$10.93

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6257-5537 (11794)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$168.49

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$2.37

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.