Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2026-11-05?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 36¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$45.74

Smart Money Entry

36¢ → 35.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,874

Combined PnL-$46.29

Yes3 traders

Total Value$387.83

Total Shares616

Combined PnL+$0.55

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 36.5¢	$924.43	$887.11	-$37.32	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 35¢	$463.07	$463.07	+$0	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$441.1	$450.4	+$9.3	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$315	$322.5	+$7.5
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$126.1	$127.9	+$1.8
GC GC-P	Yesavg 63¢	$315	$315	-$0	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 37¢	$133.79	$126.56	-$7.23	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 36.1¢	$114.94	$111.58	-$3.36	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$69.68	$69.68	+$0.55	64% 1960-1090 (3050)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 35¢	$180.11	$66.2	+$4.21	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$29.23	$28.05	-$1.18	49% 3325-3529 (6854)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$37	$24.5	-$1.4	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.15	-$0	52% 8761-7967 (16728)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$924.43

Value

$887.11

PnL

-$37.32

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$463.07

Value

$463.07

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$441.1

Value

$450.4

PnL

+$9.3

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

Both legs:

Invested

$315

Value

$315

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$133.79

Value

$126.56

PnL

-$7.23

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$114.94

Value

$111.58

PnL

-$3.36

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.68

Value

$69.68

PnL

+$0.55

Record

64%

1960-1090 (3050)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$180.11

Value

$66.2

PnL

+$4.21

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Invested

$29.23

Value

$28.05

PnL

-$1.18

Record

49%

3325-3529 (6854)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$37

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$1.4

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

8761-7967 (16728)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.