US imports Russian diesel by January 31?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 78¢ · $6K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 78¢

+26% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,926

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$255.59

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL+$10.3

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

180h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1N 1nvoker1	Noavg 58.9¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	+$1.2K	—
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 81.8¢	$596.39	$568.92	-$27.47	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 22.7¢	$4.1K	$121.4	-$3.73	—
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 78.4¢	$100.54	$96.38	-$4.16	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$83.38	$86.11	+$2.73	—
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$17.78	$26.08	+$8.3	—
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$19	$22	+$3	—

1nvoker1

Invested

$3,579.24

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$596.39

Value

$568.92

PnL

-$27.47

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,113.71

Value

$121.4

PnL

-$3.73

Record

—

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$100.54

Value

$96.38

PnL

-$4.16

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.38

Value

$86.11

PnL

+$2.73

Record

—

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.78

Value

$26.08

PnL

+$8.3

Record

—

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$22

PnL

+$3

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

180h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.