Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 0 - 1 Chelsea FC?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 84¢ · $929 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$929.28
$18.82
90.9¢ → 83.5¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90.6¢ | $588.22 | $601.24 | +$13.02 | 50% 1408-1410 (2818) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 91.4¢ | $157.53 | $156.88 | -$0.65 | 25% 214-643 (857) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $86.62 | $84.74 | -$1.88 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $42.01 | $40.66 | +$0.56 | 49% 231-239 (470) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $15.73 | $22.81 | +$7.08 | 25% 215-633 (848) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $20.55 | $20.78 | +$0.23 | 25% 213-654 (867) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $0.97 | $1.38 | +$0.41 | 58% 3757-2710 (6467) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.49 | $0.54 | +$0.05 | 44% 79-102 (181) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $0.25 | $0.26 | +$0.01 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
Invested
$588.22
Value
$601.24
PnL
+$13.02
Record
50%
1408-1410 (2818)
Invested
$157.53
Value
$156.88
PnL
-$0.65
Record
25%
214-643 (857)
Invested
$86.62
Value
$84.74
PnL
-$1.88
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$42.01
Value
$40.66
PnL
+$0.56
Record
49%
231-239 (470)
Invested
$15.73
Value
$22.81
PnL
+$7.08
Record
25%
215-633 (848)
Invested
$20.55
Value
$20.78
PnL
+$0.23
Record
25%
213-654 (867)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.97
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0.41
Record
58%
3757-2710 (6467)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.54
PnL
+$0.05
Record
44%
79-102 (181)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$0.01
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.