Exact Score: BK Häcken FF 2 - 2 Chelsea FC?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 80¢ · $794 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$794.02
-$45.85
97.4¢ → 79.5¢
-18% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.4¢ | $394.36 | $404.66 | +$10.3 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97.4¢ | $198.05 | $199.9 | +$1.85 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 97.8¢ | $108.62 | $74.82 | -$33.8 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $52.76 | $52.95 | +$0.19 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $56.96 | $39.34 | -$17.62 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $22.67 | $22.08 | -$0.59 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $6.44 | $0.25 | -$6.19 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 58% 3761-2714 (6475) |
Invested
$394.36
Value
$404.66
PnL
+$10.3
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$198.05
Value
$199.9
PnL
+$1.85
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$108.62
Value
$74.82
PnL
-$33.8
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Invested
$52.76
Value
$52.95
PnL
+$0.19
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$56.96
Value
$39.34
PnL
-$17.62
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$22.67
Value
$22.08
PnL
-$0.59
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$6.44
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$6.19
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
3761-2714 (6475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.